Vuelta’23 Last Spherical Up: After having just a few days to ponder Sepp Kuss’s unimaginable journey to get a extremely sudden general Vuelta a España victory (and turn out to be the primary American in a decade to win one among biking’s three grand excursions), Spencer Martin wished to pause to interrupt down how and the place he gained the race over his teammates/rivals Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič, in addition to UAE’s Juan Ayuso, who completed in fourth place general, and try and predict how this win will have an effect on the way forward for the Jumbo-Visma crew.

– This text is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton publication. Enroll right here for full entry. –

Sepp Kuss wins on stage 6

At first look, the 29-year-old Sepp Kuss gained after taking time resulting from entering into a large breakaway within the chaotic opening kilometers of Stage 6, earlier than taking the lead on Stage 8, and holding on for expensive life till they arrived in Madrid to complete the race. However, upon additional inspection, Kuss really outrode his non-Jumbo rivals, and proved himself to be a possible GC contender at future grand excursions.

And took crimson on stage 8

The race may need allowed Jumbo-Visma, who saved the race attention-grabbing with their intra-team battle, which got here to a head on the finish of Stage 17 on the steep slopes of the l’Angliru, to spotlight their dominance of the game with their sweep of each the Vuelta podium and each grand tour on the 2023 calendar, however it additionally left just a few main questions concerning the crew’s future. By the race’s finish, it was clear that their superior recruitment and growth course of, which has left them with a number of choices to win grand excursions, is also their undoing because it was made clear to Primož Roglič, the crew’s stoic middle of gravity and nonetheless one among their most essential UCI factors and win collectors, that he’ll possible have to go away the crew within the low season if he desires to ever have one other probability to contest the Tour de France.

Roglič must go away Jumbo-Visma for a Tour victory probability

Beneath is a numbers-based breakdown of how the race, which I consider was by far the very best and most enjoyable grand tour of the season, performed out and was gained. For a mirrored image on the emotional influence, I like to recommend testing Jonathan Kaplan’s RIDING WITH put up on this Vuelta.

Last GC Prime Ten:
1) Sepp Kuss (Jumbo) +0
2) Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo) +17
3) Primož Roglič (Jumbo) +1’08
4) Juan Ayuso (UAE) +3’18
5) Mikel Landa (Bahrain) +3’37
6) Enric Mas (Movistar) +4’14
7) Aleksandr Vlasov (Bora) +7’53
8) Cian Uijtdebroeks (Bora) +8’00
9) João Almeida (UAE) +10’08
10) Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain) +11’38

To assist us digest the tip consequence, and try to know what precisely occurred and the place errors/profitable strikes have been made, I’ve remoted each stage the place the highest three gained/misplaced time relative to one another and the way a lot time they gained(+) or misplaced(-).

DSM have been fortunate with the circumstances on stage 1

The place Time Was Gained/Misplaced

Stage 1 Crew Time Trial
Roglič +0
Vingegaard +0
Kuss +0
Ayuso -5

Stage 3 Summit End
Vingegaard +0
Ayuso -2
Roglič -6
Kuss -18

Stage 6 Summit End
Kuss +0
Roglič -3’02
Vingegaard -3’02
Ayuso -3’09

Stage 7 Dash End
Vingegaard +0
Roglič -2
Ayuso -2
Kuss -2

Stage 8 Mountain Stage (Downhill End)
Roglič +0
Ayuso -6
Vingegaard -12
Kuss -12

Stage 9 Summit End
Roglič +0
Ayuso +0
Vingegaard +0
Kuss -9

Stage 10 Particular person Time Trial
Roglič +0
Ayuso -42
Vingegaard -49
Kuss -1’00

Stage 12 Dash End
Roglič +0
Ayuso -4
Vingegaard -4
Kuss -4

Stage 13 Summit End
Vingegaard +0
Kuss -38
Roglič -43
Ayuso -50

Stage 16 Summit End
Vingegaard +0
Ayuso -1’11
Roglič -1’11
Kuss -1’15

Stage 17 Summit End
Roglič +0
Vingegaard -4
Kuss -25
Ayuso -1’52

Stage 18 Summit End
Ayuso +0
Kuss +0
Roglič +0
Vingegaard -9

When the Prime 4 Gained/Misplaced Time Relative to Sepp Kuss:

Week 1 (Levels 1-9)
Roglič -2’29
Vingegaard -2’33
Ayuso -2’43

Week 2 (Levels 10-15)
Roglič +52
Vingegaard +49
Ayuso +6

Week 3 (Levels 16-21)
Vingegaard +1’27
Roglič +29
Ayuso -41 (-1’23 earlier than Kuss sat as much as have a good time)

The above graphs and figures present us exactly what we might count on; that Sepp Kuss took time on the remainder of the GC contenders, together with his teammates Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič, together with his Stage 6 breakaway, earlier than Vingegaard and Roglič began reeling him in via the second and third weeks.

• However, opposite to the narrative, Kuss didn’t win this Vuelta solely because of the breakaway and, even after sitting as much as have a good time and dropping time on the previous few phases, really put time into each different non-Jumbo GC contender after Stage 6
• Ayuso: misplaced 35-seconds
  Mas: misplaced 1’32
  Landa: misplaced 1’47
• And, whereas Vingegaard may need seemed to be the stronger rider on Jumbo within the race, he took most of his time on Kuss when Kuss was both working for him (Stage 3) or when he wasn’t marked by the others or Kuss (Levels 13 & 16).
• When Kuss and Vingegaard have been really racing in opposition to one another on Stage 10 & 17, Kuss restricted his losses to simply 36 seconds.

Kuss rode an excellent time trial

Course Kind The place Time Was Gained/Misplaced Relative to Kuss*

Time Trials (Particular person + Crew)
Roglič +53 (gained)
Ayuso +13 (gained)
Vingegaard +11 (gained)

• Particular person Time Trials
  Roglič +53 (gained)
  Ayuso +18 (gained)
  Vingegaard +11 (gained)

Mountain Levels
Vingegaard -46 (misplaced)
Roglič -2’09 (misplaced)
Ayuso -4’03 (misplaced)

• With out the Stage 6 breakaway (with out time bonuses)
  Roglič +44 (gained)
  Vingegaard +2’06 (gained)
  Ayuso -1’04 (misplaced)

Time Bonuses
Vingegaard +18 (gained)
Roglič +8 (gained)
Ayuso -10 (misplaced)

*The time Juan Ayuso took again on Sepp Kuss whereas he sat as much as have a good time on Levels 20 & 21 aren’t included

Kuss/Vingegaard Time Distinction Per Stage Kind
Particular person Time Trial (1): 11-seconds per stage (Vingegaard)

Mountain Levels (6): 7.6-seconds per stage (Kuss)

• Stage 6 Breakaway (1): 172-seconds per stage (Kuss)

Time Bonus (6): 3-seconds per stage (Vingegaard)

• As you may see above, Kuss limiting his time losses to Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič within the Stage 10 particular person time trial was key to his win.

The PR state of affairs was not good at Jumbo-Visma

Key Takeaways

1) Jumbo-Visma was put in a troublesome PR state of affairs as soon as Remco Evenepoel imploded

• It was straightforward to criticize Jumbo-Visma’s messy ways within the ultimate week, when Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič almost ripped the chief’s jersey off their teammate’s again after they rode away from Sepp Kuss on l’Angliru on the finish of Stage 17.
• Nevertheless, whereas this undeniably seemed unhealthy, the crew was caught in a no-win state of affairs because of the sudden collapse of Remco Evenepoel and the shortage of any actual GC challengers. As soon as this occurred, the crew was left with three choices, all of them with vital downsides:
• Order Roglič and Vingegaard to assist Kuss via the complete third week:
• Sepp Kuss, Jumbo’s loyal domestique, was a storybook winner for the crew, but when they allowed him to journey uncontested for the complete third week, they might danger alienating their two largest GC stars (Roglič and Vingegaard).
• Primož Roglič, who presently ranks second on the crew in 2023 win rankings with 14 victories (he had gained each race he entered in 2023 earlier than the Vuelta), is among the crew’s most essential riders now and within the close to future.
• He had constructed his season round profitable the Vuelta, and would have actually felt cheated if the crew had ordered him to take a seat again and permit Sepp Kuss to journey uncontested for the complete third week (contemplating that Kuss and Vingegaard have been each complicated late additions to the beginning record, he possible does nonetheless really feel a bit cheated) and sure would have pushed for a transfer away from the crew within the low season.
• And, for Jonas Vingegaard, profitable the Vuelta wouldn’t have been insignificant since he’s presently making an attempt to construct up a top-tier palmares, and he could not have loved being ordered to cross up the prospect.
• Permit the three riders to duke it out till Stage 21 and let the strongest rider win:
• This possible would have left Roglič and Vingegaard the happiest however would even have made Vingegaard, who had essentially the most to achieve from a Kuss collapse and Roglič’s aggressive racing, appear like a grasping jerk who ‘stole’ a life-changing victory from a key domestique.
• And, even when Vingegaard determined to not go away Kuss and let Roglič chase the victory himself, he risked ceding a key race to one among his largest rivals for the 2024 Tour de France and probably make his Jumbo crew suppose Roglič was the higher shot to steer the crew.
• The exterior optics of this technique are at all times unbelievably unhealthy, and would have risked turning almost each biking fan outdoors of Denmark and Slovenia in opposition to them.
• Race in a mixture of the above two choices by holding the racing ‘dwell’ via the toughest climb of the race on Stage 17 and falling in line behind whoever is the chief:
• This mixture possibility, which they finally picked, created unideal optics and opened them as much as immense criticism
• However, by permitting Roglič to proceed to race aggressively via Stage 17, they maybe appeased him sufficient to maintain him on the squad in 2024, whereas additionally delivering the win to Kuss, and accumulating the publicity and goodwill that comes together with profitable a grand excursions with an underdog rider, in addition to capping off their 2023 grand tour sweep with three completely different riders.
• Even after touchdown the airplane with a Kuss victory and a reasonably cohesive podium sweep, it is going to be troublesome to maintain this crew intact within the coming season.
• And, even when they do full that job, it is going to be almost inconceivable to maintain everybody proud of the restricted management choices their embarrassment of riches creates.

Kuss held the lead even after the robust stage 17

2) Sepp Kuss continued to take time on GC stars after his Stage 6 breakaway and will proceed to problem for grand tour wins sooner or later

• As a result of circumstances of his win, which included getting a large time cushion with to a breakaway on Stage 6, many will assume that Sepp Kuss was merely gifted this Vuelta and that he gained’t be a risk for victory in future grand excursions.
• Nevertheless, this could be overlooking the truth that whereas he misplaced time to his teammates Roglič and Vingegaard after Stage 6, even when he took the leaders’ jersey on Stage 8, he took time on each different GC contender, a few of them being extremely highly-touted GC contenders like Juan Ayuso, Remco Evenepoel and Enric Mas.
• And, regardless that Roglič and Vingegaard took time on him, most of it was achieved via assaults the place Kuss sat within the group and marked his different GC rivals whereas Vingegaard rode considerably uncontested up the street (Levels 13 & 16).
• And, within the Stage 10 time trial, Kuss held his personal in opposition to Roglič, Vingegaard, and Ayuso, all world-class riders in opposition to the clock, which performed a big position in his victory.
• Some would possibly debate if Kuss has the ‘winner’s mentality’ and might deal with the stress of sole management, however, from a bodily perspective, this Vuelta confirmed that he actually has what it takes to go up in opposition to, and beat, among the strongest GC contenders.

Mas and Ayuso – Disappointing?

3) Enric Mas & Crew UAE have been the massive winners of the extremely publicized Jumbo-Visma intra-team battle

• Among the huge winners of the Jumbo-Visma intra-team battle sucking up all of the press oxygen distracting from their races have been Movistar’s Enric Mas and Juan Ayuso’s UAE crew.
• Mas, who has been thought-about a possible grand tour-winning rider since ending second on the 2018 Vuelta, utterly flopped at this race.
• After an ideal opening crew time trial, he went on to cede time to Kuss, Vingegaard, Roglič, and Ayuso on almost each stage all through the remainder of the race. And, not solely did he lose time, however he continued to journey in a frustratingly conservative method designed to restrict losses however by no means really take time on anybody.
• Mixed with the truth that he has by no means gained a European World Tour-level stage race, this Vuelta uncovered the 28-year-old as merely not on the required stage wanted to steer a high crew at a contemporary grand tour.
• For comparability, his 5 profession Grand Tour top-five finishes observe equally with Wilco Kelderman’s, a domestique on Jumbo, depend of three.

• Crew UAE rode so poorly as a crew that it raises severe questions on their capability to ship Pogačar one other Tour de France win
• Whereas the 20-year-old Juan Ayuso put in a stable efficiency to complete in 4th place general, this Vuelta, which noticed the UAE crew race with none clear plan, and, at instances, even in opposition to their very own GC chief.
• This confirms that no one is up within the sales space calling the photographs at UAE and basically ended any hope that they might ever be capable to create and execute a well-defined and intelligent technique for Tadej Pogačar to tackle Jonas Vingegaard on the Tour de France.

What now for Remco Evenepoel?

4) Even essentially the most spectacular younger stars must proceed to enhance in the event that they need to keep away from turning into veteran also-rans

• As anticipated, a proficient younger Belgian completed inside the highest ten of this Vuelta. Nevertheless, as an alternative of defending champion Remco Evenepoel, it was 20-year-old Cian Uijtdebroeks.
• One other 20-year-old, Juan Ayuso, put in a powerful journey to complete 4th place general.
• A 23-year-old Remco Evenepoel gained three phases and completed on the stage podium six instances.
• These are unimaginable outcomes; nevertheless, upon nearer inspection, a troubling pattern emerges: Ayuso and Evenepoel regressed from their performances from the 2022 Vuelta.
• Evenepoel, who gained the general in 2022, suffered a significant, unexplained collapse on Stage 13 that ended any hopes of defending his title.
• The large time loss meant that in 4 profession grand tour begins, Evenepoel solely has a single general top-ten end.
• It’s straightforward to wave off this as a nasty day, however the uncomfortable truth is that riders who get right into a behavior of struggling sudden unhealthy days in grand excursions usually have a troublesome time ever constantly stringing collectively 21 consecutive days of racing with out struggling a single unhealthy day that prices them vital time.
• Whereas Ayuso must be applauded for being the primary non-Jumbo rider and ending 4th place general at simply 20 years outdated, it’s plain that he appeared to lack the identical sparkle he had within the 2022 version of this race.
• He misplaced time to each Jumbo-Visma rider in each the mountains and time bonuses, solely gained 18 seconds on Kuss within the time trial, and would have misplaced to Kuss even with out the time he gained on the Stage 6 breakaway.
• It’d look like nitpicking to criticize riders this younger, however it is very important bear in mind simply how important it’s for younger riders, even ones this good, to proceed to enhance.
• If Uijtdebroeks and Ayuso stall out of their growth, in just a few seasons, they are going to go from highly-touted future superstars to considerably forgotten also-ran GC contenders like Mikel Landa and Enric Mas (who’re superb and able to GC podiums however aren’t thought-about superstars).

Is there a giant future for Cian Uijtdebroeks?

Meet up with all of the 2023 Vuelta a España phases with photographs and video HERE.

Jumbo-Visma – Grand Tour domination

# Spencer Martin is the creator of the cycling-analysis publication Past the Peloton that breaks down the nuances of every race and solutions huge image questions surrounding crew and rider efficiency. Enroll now to get full entry to all of the obtainable content material and race breakdowns. #

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