5 Key Il Lombardia Takeaways: Spencer Martin breaks down how the ultimate main highway race of the season, Il Lombardia, was gained in spectacular style by the flying Tadej Pogačar. What occurred to the ‘Battle of the Huge Three’? The place was Primoz Roglič and Remco Evenepoel?

– This text is an excerpt from the Past the Peloton e-newsletter. Join right here for full entry. –

Tadej Pogačar’s third-in-a-row Il Lombardia

Tadej Pogačar gained his third consecutive Il Lombardia and reasserted his place as the game’s finest rider by forging away from an elite entrance group within the brutally steep but visually gorgeous mountains surrounding the attractive city of Bergamo in Northern Italy on Saturday. Whereas Pogačar attacked by opening a small hole on a descent with over 30 kilometers remaining, the dearth of cooperation within the robust chase group behind was no match for the singular focus of Pogačar, who powered clear to cross the end line by practically a minute forward of Andrea Bagioli and Primož Roglič,

2023 Il Lombardia Prime Ten
1) Tadej Pogačar (UAE Workforce Emirates) +0
2) Andrea Bagioli (Soudal Fast-Step) +52
3) Primož Roglič (Jumbo-Visma) +52
4) Aleksandr Vlasov (BORA-hansgrohe) +52
5) Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla) +52
6) Adam Yates (UAE Workforce Emirates) +52
7) Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers) +52
8) Richard Carapaz (EF Training-EasyPost) +1’06
9) Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Fast-Step) +1’26
10) Andreas Kron (Lotto Dstny) +1’26.

The sight the others had of Pogačar

Race Pocket book:

37.5km: After Roglič’s Jumbo-Visma staff is thinned down attributable to setting a tough tempo to maintain Ben Healy, who attacked with simply over 80km-to-go, below management, UAE’s Adam Yates assaults, which attracts out the primary contenders and elevated the tempo sufficient to reel in Healy. Remco Evenepoel, who crashed earlier within the race, is dropped after he opts in on his patented ‘trip your individual tempo’ technique as a substitute of going all-in to stick with the leaders.

35.1km: An assault from Aleksandr Vlasov, which is marked by riders together with Mike Woods and Adam Yates, is off the entrance, whereas Roglič and Pogačar, nonetheless caught of their multi-week lengthy stalemate, sit behind and await the opposite to maneuver earlier than they react.

34.2km: Whereas Roglič is pinned on the left-hand facet of the highway, Pogačar nearly nonchalantly follows a bridge try on the right-hand facet.

33.5km: This passivity from Roglič signifies that whereas Pogačar bridges as much as the leaders, he’s caught behind chasing.

33.2km: Simply as Roglič is about to make contact with the lead group, Pogačar well assaults in an try to make Roglič’s effort to get again on phrases as troublesome as attainable. This transfer is vital because it forces Roglič to expend an enormous quantity of power previous to the descent.

31.3km: As they go excessive of the climb, Roglič, who has been compelled to carry out a taxing assault to get even with Pogačar and Vlasov, lets the wheel of Pogačar go whereas Vlasov acts as a kind of impediment, or display, between the 2 Slovenes.

31.5km: Roglič’s mistake permits a slight hole to open that Pogačar instantly takes benefit of by attacking simply because the descent begins to get technical. This exhibits the significance of Pogačar’s determination to assault when Roglič was bridging to be able to put him on the restrict excessive of the climb.

30.6km: Only a few hundred meters later, Pogačar has already opened up a roughly four-second hole.

26.6km-15.2km: Pogačar presses the descent so aggressively that his hole shortly opens as much as 12 seconds, and is over 30 seconds by the point the chasers, who’re already beginning to fear about pulling an excessive amount of for one another, end the descent.

12.1km: By the point he hits the flats, Pogačar has opened up a 45-second. He seems to be cramping, however he shortly calls again to the staff automotive for what I’d think about is a drink (like pickle juice) to alleviate the problem.

3.8km: No matter he will get from the staff automotive appears to work since Pogačar continues to increase his lead as he flies up the brief remaining climb.

End: He crosses the end line with greater than sufficient time to rejoice his third victory, in simply three profession begins at this race.

Chase Group End: Roglič, who was truly dropped from the chase group on the brief remaining climb, finishes second behind Andrea Bagioli after main out the entrance from the entrance. This ferocity for which these riders are preventing for the dash highlights why it was so troublesome to reel in Pogačar, since everybody was holding again to struggle for the rostrum and keep away from pulling a rival to a victory.

5 Key Takeaways

The primary three takeaways are my preliminary post-race ideas despatched to premium subscribers on Saturday after the race.

1) Tadej Pogačar is as near unbeatable at this race as any rider within the historical past of the game

• The 25-year-old wins his third consecutive Il Lombardia title and turns into solely the third rider behind solely Alfredo Binda and Fausto Coppi to perform this feat. His capacity to win one of many hardest races on the calendar seemingly on command is really spectacular, however what speaks to his greatness and staggering versatility is that he gained this race on two totally different configurations (Como to Bergamo: 2021, 2023 & Bergamo to Como: 2022) in a number of methods and with totally different ranges of health.
• In 2021 & 2022, he dropped all however one different competitor on the climbs earlier than out-sprinting them on the end line, however immediately, after failing to drop the opposite contenders on the ultimate climb, he attacked the downhill earlier than placing a staggering period of time into the remainder on the descent and gliding clear for a definitive solo victory.
• As a testomony to his greatness, Pogačar gained immediately with the best margin of victory at this race regardless of trying like he was missing his finest health and was within the worst form out of his three Lombardia wins.
• This win signifies that Pogačar has gained 5 Monument victories in simply three seasons and in his final 9 Monument begins, placing him at a staggering good and fully unmatched 55.6% Monument win share since 2021.
• To place this into context, at simply 25, he has extra Monument wins than every other energetic rider within the peloton, is already ranked sixteenth all-time, and has 5 titles on the identical age as the nice Tom Boonen, who went on to win seven complete Monuments, was when he gained his first.
• The truth that Pogačar can win main one-days whereas additionally being one of many high two grand tour racers on the planet signifies that Pogačar is at present, definitely, one of the best, and by far probably the most versatile, rider within the sport {of professional} biking.

Roglič rode a wierd race

2) Primož Roglič’s going from a tactical masterclass final weekend to a disaterclass immediately illustrates the key gulf between semi-classics and Monuments

• In his final race in Jumbo colours, the 33-year-old, after a surprisingly up-and-down race, will get a stable third place, which marks solely the second time he has completed on a Monument podium in his profession.
• Whereas this trip, particularly his dash, the place he completed second after being on the entrance from practically 500 meters to go, was spectacular, it was arduous to not discover the stark distinction within the poise he confirmed in final weekend’s shorter Giro dell’Emilia, the place he moped up the identical competitors with ease, to immediately.
• On immediately’s remaining climb, he seemed rattled and on the restrict when he was remoted from his staff, which led to a momentary lack of judgment that noticed him take his eye off the ball and lose Pogačar’s wheel (after not leaving it all through the tune-up races), which allowed Pogačar to trip clear for the win. This was a expensive error since, judging by his spectacular dash, if he may have held Pogačar’s wheel at this level, it was attainable that he may have gained a decreased dash for the win.
• The truth that he seemed far much less bodily and tactically spectacular in a 238-kilometer one-day race versus the 200-kilometer one final weekend exhibits us why he isn’t the identical degree of main one-day rider as his countryman Pogačar, regardless of taking a look at, and even above, his degree within the shorter ones.

Extra Evenepoel questions

3) Questions nonetheless linger relating to Remco Evenepoel’s capacity to finest high riders at main one-day races

• The Belgian wunderkind could have two profession Monument wins on the age of 23, however after immediately, the place he crashed early within the race and completed ninth place in a uncommon alternative to go head-to-head-to-head with Roglič and Pogačar, there are nonetheless main questions on his capacity to go up in opposition to the world’s finest riders on the peak of their health.
• By way of each profession non-international one-day race matchup, Evenepoel has but to beat Roglič on a single event and has by no means overwhelmed Pogačar in a race the Slovenian has completed.
• This can be a troubling trendline, particularly since Evenepoel has historically employed a ‘Remco see, Remco smash’ racing type to win one-day races, which doesn’t work practically as nicely in opposition to top-tier and absolutely match competitors.
• Additionally, whereas the early crash possible affected his efficiency, seeing the younger Belgian fall off the tempo on a late race climb when the tempo received excessive, solely to surge again on the flats in a while the run into the end line, made me query if he has the flexibility to trip on different rider’s phrases and be uncomfortable for the 5-10 minutes at a time to remain in an elite group towards the tip of a world-class race.

Bagioli took second after one other spectacular day

4) Behind Pogačar, just a few performances stood out, for higher and for worse

Pogačar might need dominated the race, and the narrative, however Andrea Bagioli’s second place end, and Richard Carapaz’s eighth place end after a troublesome 2023, and crash earlier within the race, have been notable shock outcomes.
• Bagioli, the extraordinarily gifted 24-year-old Italian, wrapped up one of the best week of his 4 years at QuickStep, the place he completed on the rostrum of all three races he began and beat his personal staff chief Evenepoel, simply as he leaves for Lidl-Trek.
• With the flexibility to podium one of many hardest races of the yr, will probably be attention-grabbing to see how he develops, or regresses, on his new staff.
• The 30-year-old Carapaz, coming off one of many worst seasons of his profession, besieged by accidents and crashes and failing to race greater than a single stage in a grand tour, rallied to a formidable top-ten end after a late crash.
• Contemplating how a lot much less race-level depth he was in a position to accrue all through the season, that is an extremely spectacular consequence that bodes nicely for his 2024 season.
• Alternatively, the 27-year-old Aleksandr Vlasov completed one other race the place he seemed extremely robust, however at no level seemed to be a critical challenger for the race win.
• Vlasov, who burst onto the scene with a formidable third place on the 2020 Il Lombardia, has did not progress since that consequence attributable to an incapacity to make the most of racing methods that may permit him to beat riders like Roglič and Pogačar.
• As an alternative of taking dangers to get out in entrance of the race to be able to put the remainder in a troublesome place, he has fallen into a foul behavior of sitting in and following wheels within the hardest moments.
• Whereas with the ability to observe these riders is bodily spectacular, his lack of a dash and incapacity to drop faster riders signifies that his probabilities of victory racing on this method are close to zero, and exhibits why he hasn’t gained a race for the reason that summer season of 2022.

Vlasov seemed good, however…

5) The rise of top-tier riders profitable main races solo illustrates how sport concept is more and more influencing racing

• The ultimate Monument of the 2023 season additional emphasised how uncommon it’s in trendy biking for decreased chase teams to shut down a single robust rider on the finish of a troublesome race.
• For instance, via 2023’s 5 Monuments (plus the World Championships), a solo rider, who was a member of biking’s unofficial Huge Six (Remco Evenepoel, Primož Roglič, Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert), gained each occasion.
• This phenomenon illustrates simply how robust the spell of ‘second group syndrome’ has change into and the lengths riders caught behind within the chase group will go to keep away from reeling within the escaped rider as a result of state of affairs representing a real-life model of the prisoner’s dilemma sport concept thought experiment (a paradox in determination evaluation by which two people appearing in their very own self-interests don’t produce the optimum end result.).
• It additionally exhibits us that as trendy racing will get tougher and extra bodily demanding, it’s favoring solely the game’s extremely top-tier riders, who can get, and keep, away from the chasers extra simply as a result of elevated problem which means that even a bigger chase group can wrestle to trip at the next tempo than a single robust rider.
• One other issue that may’t be ignored is how the significance of podium finishes at main one-day races, and substantial UCI factors on supply, create a state of affairs the place the tempo of the chase group is decreased because the significance of a race will increase.
• Regardless of the purpose, the message needs to be clear; if you wish to win a significant one-day race, discover a window to assault and get away clear inside the ultimate few kilometers of the race to drive the others to make a difficult-to-impossible determination.

The followers have been completely satisfied

# Spencer Martin is the creator of the cycling-analysis e-newsletter Past the Peloton that breaks down the nuances of every race and solutions huge image questions surrounding staff and rider efficiency. Join now to get full entry to all of the accessible content material and race breakdowns. #

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